Conversion successful! Created: C:/Users/Chris/Python/format_csv.py ✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!
Output folder: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-05-24 Success with webpdf! PDF saved to: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-05-24\btc_report_2025-05-24.pdf
1-Month Period Performance:
| Â | Rank | Period | Mean Return | Median Return | Success Rate | Min Return | Max Return | Count | Is Current | Year4 Mean | Year4 Median | Year4 Success | Year4 Count | Year1 Mean | Year1 Median | Year1 Success | Year1 Count | Year2 Mean | Year2 Median | Year2 Success | Year2 Count | Year3 Mean | Year3 Median | Year3 Success | Year3 Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 1 | October | 16.708239 | 14.596452 | 72.941176 | -31.958763 | 61.219802 | 425 | False | 10.933955 | 12.745795 | 75.000000 | 124 | 49.975623 | 48.730378 | 100.000000 | 93 | -4.048506 | -4.463919 | 33.333333 | 93 | 12.817125 | 28.540701 | 80.9% | 115 |
| 1 | 2 | February | 11.478221 | 11.632250 | 71.212121 | -31.494396 | 65.172414 | 396 | False | 10.850846 | 4.711207 | 50.000000 | 116 | 26.929632 | 30.103910 | 75.000000 | 112 | -5.886182 | 1.634744 | 66.666667 | 84 | 9.107117 | 11.063395 | 100.0% | 84 |
| 10 | 3 | November | 40.821275 | 11.544720 | 65.060241 | -37.012293 | 450.162130 | 415 | False | 24.898990 | 25.188214 | 100.000000 | 120 | 165.874914 | 54.605206 | 66.666667 | 90 | -13.894289 | -16.215293 | 33.333333 | 90 | 2.388643 | 8.803762 | 52.2% | 115 |
| 6 | 4 | July | 10.186790 | 9.920591 | 69.230769 | -9.056250 | 40.606061 | 403 | False | 15.403052 | 13.692184 | 75.000000 | 124 | 14.697911 | 15.831806 | 100.000000 | 93 | 9.588578 | 16.842772 | 66.666667 | 93 | -0.681137 | -4.063146 | 33.3% | 93 |
| 0 | 5 | January | 5.724824 | 9.699454 | 57.540603 | -32.429907 | 54.531722 | 431 | False | 8.053369 | 8.215224 | 75.000000 | 124 | 19.570423 | 11.996578 | 75.000000 | 124 | -11.306391 | -16.738222 | 33.333333 | 93 | 1.039370 | -7.600200 | 34.4% | 90 |
| 3 | 6 | April | 11.254897 | 5.397477 | 64.285714 | -17.316107 | 46.471204 | 420 | False | 7.405229 | 5.189520 | 75.000000 | 120 | 21.220719 | 20.068815 | 75.000000 | 120 | 4.935164 | -1.310437 | 33.333333 | 90 | 9.419757 | 2.665402 | 66.7% | 90 |
| 4 | 7 | May | 10.120894 | 4.655870 | 56.440281 | -35.385043 | 70.364302 | 427 | True | 11.011360 | 10.394559 | 100.000000 | 124 | 10.067978 | -8.550797 | 47.008547 | 117 | 1.754902 | -15.611611 | 33.333333 | 93 | 17.366169 | -3.197023 | 33.3% | 93 |
| 5 | 8 | June | 1.290665 | 2.120102 | 53.846154 | -37.297881 | 27.852998 | 390 | False | 10.713984 | 11.083742 | 50.000000 | 120 | -9.550328 | -6.015737 | 33.333333 | 90 | -16.649083 | -14.769469 | 33.333333 | 90 | 17.506980 | 14.673889 | 100.0% | 90 |
| 2 | 9 | March | 12.267052 | -1.956171 | 42.857143 | -32.829600 | 186.758127 | 434 | False | -3.746775 | -3.430710 | 25.000000 | 124 | 51.094224 | 13.882171 | 50.000000 | 124 | -15.030623 | -17.573396 | 33.333333 | 93 | 9.146932 | 8.046911 | 66.7% | 93 |
| 8 | 10 | September | -4.032625 | -3.112375 | 36.319613 | -39.750000 | 19.803922 | 413 | False | 6.542976 | 6.959184 | 75.000000 | 120 | -5.626852 | -6.968862 | 0.000000 | 90 | -9.141489 | -5.957570 | 0.000000 | 90 | -9.924608 | 2.584148 | 53.1% | 113 |
| 11 | 11 | December | 6.642505 | -3.203035 | 49.651972 | -34.614835 | 47.145156 | 431 | False | 20.255268 | 18.539476 | 75.000000 | 124 | -4.586390 | -18.960943 | 33.333333 | 93 | -8.449211 | -6.982894 | 0.000000 | 93 | 12.922127 | 11.998092 | 74.4% | 121 |
| 7 | 12 | August | 1.666698 | -8.313253 | 37.712895 | -26.605505 | 65.776435 | 411 | False | -1.238046 | -2.849088 | 50.000000 | 124 | 36.784920 | 30.919505 | 100.000000 | 93 | -13.651142 | -13.863217 | 0.000000 | 93 | -12.999117 | -11.255604 | 0.0% | 101 |
2-Month Period Performance:
| Â | Rank | Period | Mean Return | Median Return | Success Rate | Min Return | Max Return | Count | Is Current | Year4 Mean | Year4 Median | Year4 Success | Year4 Count | Year1 Mean | Year1 Median | Year1 Success | Year1 Count | Year2 Mean | Year2 Median | Year2 Success | Year2 Count | Year3 Mean | Year3 Median | Year3 Success | Year3 Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1 | November-December | 40.265119 | 27.457241 | 64.285714 | -41.418035 | 259.634470 | 14 | False | 50.527870 | 35.823319 | 100.000000 | 4 | 116.892114 | 115.720893 | 66.666667 | 3 | -21.930960 | -19.348070 | 0.000000 | 3 | 19.179182 | 29.924356 | 75.0% | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | October-November | 79.098668 | 25.987918 | 64.285714 | -39.812270 | 786.970297 | 14 | False | 39.704846 | 37.142032 | 100.000000 | 4 | 315.629640 | 129.945979 | 100.000000 | 3 | -18.205098 | -11.581441 | 0.000000 | 3 | 14.072085 | 15.402144 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | September-October | 11.465651 | 18.804455 | 71.428571 | -58.750000 | 59.139953 | 14 | False | 16.893454 | 18.804455 | 100.000000 | 4 | 41.757452 | 35.907407 | 100.000000 | 3 | -12.452064 | -10.155820 | 33.333333 | 3 | 1.257285 | 14.532349 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 1 | 4 | February-March | 34.180277 | 12.272828 | 64.285714 | -43.358655 | 373.645320 | 14 | False | 9.357892 | 0.568554 | 50.000000 | 4 | 110.701806 | 44.282342 | 75.000000 | 4 | -18.937472 | -31.730941 | 33.333333 | 3 | 18.365834 | 19.989806 | 100.0% | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | June-July | 11.072967 | 11.293596 | 69.230769 | -26.605765 | 79.497099 | 13 | False | 28.156414 | 18.712754 | 75.000000 | 4 | 4.164085 | 11.293596 | 66.666667 | 3 | -10.260947 | -7.288946 | 33.333333 | 3 | 16.537835 | 18.015165 | 100.0% | 3 |
| 11 | 6 | December-January | 12.599230 | 9.475761 | 64.285714 | -42.327634 | 68.200216 | 14 | False | 42.349750 | 47.520229 | 100.000000 | 4 | -19.514037 | -28.272831 | 33.333333 | 3 | -7.213865 | -14.039581 | 33.333333 | 3 | 21.793482 | 18.087095 | 75.0% | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | April-May | 23.215299 | 8.168339 | 61.538462 | -36.483355 | 114.498665 | 13 | False | 18.891402 | 16.992634 | 75.000000 | 4 | 37.317494 | 33.937173 | 66.666667 | 3 | 5.325905 | 8.168339 | 66.666667 | 3 | 32.767696 | -4.414244 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | May-June | 14.126297 | 5.831475 | 69.230769 | -47.062870 | 104.259415 | 13 | True | 22.999282 | 19.818572 | 100.000000 | 4 | 2.472603 | -35.990563 | 33.333333 | 3 | -11.731168 | -30.916827 | 33.333333 | 3 | 39.806811 | 11.007739 | 100.0% | 3 |
| 0 | 9 | January-February | 18.647726 | 5.795879 | 64.285714 | -25.685159 | 153.247734 | 14 | False | 18.445645 | 14.021501 | 100.000000 | 4 | 55.713504 | 39.637789 | 75.000000 | 4 | -19.044846 | -24.849727 | 0.000000 | 3 | 7.188704 | 2.639793 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 2 | 10 | March-April | 27.827850 | 1.930398 | 64.285714 | -18.657122 | 317.178646 | 14 | False | 0.799067 | 0.700318 | 75.000000 | 4 | 92.469689 | 20.500037 | 100.000000 | 4 | -13.990771 | -12.914598 | 0.000000 | 3 | 19.495729 | 26.306921 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | July-August | 13.690420 | 0.492921 | 53.846154 | -25.150000 | 92.021838 | 13 | False | 15.309307 | 10.821040 | 50.000000 | 4 | 56.561594 | 43.160720 | 100.000000 | 3 | -4.922102 | 0.492921 | 66.666667 | 3 | -12.726749 | -12.460964 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 7 | 12 | August-September | 0.137788 | -5.104429 | 30.769231 | -32.979744 | 51.483817 | 13 | False | 5.564187 | -2.159928 | 25.000000 | 4 | 28.755379 | 29.129590 | 100.000000 | 3 | -21.392457 | -16.585722 | 0.000000 | 3 | -14.184757 | -17.032562 | 0.0% | 3 |
3-Month Period Performance:
| Â | Rank | Period | Mean Return | Median Return | Success Rate | Min Return | Max Return | Count | Is Current | Year4 Mean | Year4 Median | Year4 Success | Year4 Count | Year1 Mean | Year1 Median | Year1 Success | Year1 Count | Year2 Mean | Year2 Median | Year2 Success | Year2 Count | Year3 Mean | Year3 Median | Year3 Success | Year3 Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1 | November-January | 47.090922 | 30.529970 | 78.571429 | -45.862321 | 294.517048 | 14 | False | 77.586054 | 65.940942 | 100.000000 | 4 | 104.995364 | 57.734247 | 66.666667 | 3 | -22.945218 | -35.826504 | 33.333333 | 3 | 25.694562 | 20.642961 | 100.0% | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | October-December | 73.814022 | 27.942412 | 64.285714 | -44.022165 | 479.801980 | 14 | False | 70.921189 | 53.159969 | 100.000000 | 4 | 235.357620 | 220.843995 | 100.000000 | 3 | -25.502996 | -17.599343 | 0.000000 | 3 | 30.036921 | 25.573624 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | September-November | 74.256586 | 25.938819 | 64.285714 | -60.125000 | 775.527756 | 14 | False | 46.101446 | 46.782846 | 100.000000 | 4 | 302.188854 | 110.120906 | 100.000000 | 3 | -26.350635 | -21.293919 | 0.000000 | 3 | 6.917942 | 12.093824 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | May-July | 23.517576 | 20.239354 | 61.538462 | -38.035903 | 111.717128 | 13 | True | 41.292484 | 35.357287 | 100.000000 | 4 | 17.925403 | -28.206167 | 33.333333 | 3 | -8.276271 | -16.423199 | 33.333333 | 3 | 37.203717 | 20.239354 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 1 | 5 | February-April | 55.455776 | 15.003202 | 57.142857 | -44.103362 | 589.064039 | 14 | False | 11.743267 | 7.027285 | 50.000000 | 4 | 173.897114 | 57.278985 | 75.000000 | 4 | -18.410320 | -8.935076 | 0.000000 | 3 | 29.683431 | 26.372439 | 100.0% | 3 |
| 11 | 6 | December-February | 29.231020 | 14.167686 | 64.285714 | -50.862870 | 170.621469 | 14 | False | 87.040715 | 95.067925 | 75.000000 | 4 | -23.747340 | -24.283641 | 33.333333 | 3 | -0.779689 | -4.513217 | 33.333333 | 3 | 33.663126 | 29.878608 | 100.0% | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | August-October | 22.149216 | 11.969478 | 69.230769 | -42.079378 | 125.302454 | 13 | False | 15.210635 | 15.251980 | 100.000000 | 4 | 93.792542 | 108.182469 | 100.000000 | 3 | -24.160420 | -18.423808 | 0.000000 | 3 | 6.066968 | 8.953599 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | March-May | 38.206487 | 10.805748 | 69.230769 | -27.365126 | 281.479272 | 13 | False | 11.627996 | 10.566295 | 100.000000 | 4 | 118.967558 | 92.922026 | 66.666667 | 3 | -13.368014 | -26.512024 | 33.333333 | 3 | 44.457907 | 17.596993 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | April-June | 28.015231 | 7.612840 | 61.538462 | -56.230706 | 162.953260 | 13 | False | 31.557926 | 38.619183 | 75.000000 | 4 | 27.825806 | -6.251309 | 33.333333 | 3 | -7.692032 | -7.807551 | 33.333333 | 3 | 59.188325 | 7.612840 | 100.0% | 3 |
| 0 | 10 | January-March | 54.244875 | 2.722598 | 50.000000 | -50.081988 | 626.208459 | 14 | False | 15.395578 | 1.610138 | 50.000000 | 4 | 182.022344 | 56.730146 | 75.000000 | 4 | -29.829482 | -37.864754 | 0.000000 | 3 | 19.748337 | 10.889181 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | July-September | 11.878692 | 0.998787 | 53.846154 | -38.892188 | 85.151515 | 13 | False | 23.848668 | 9.481279 | 75.000000 | 4 | 47.232605 | 41.203445 | 100.000000 | 3 | -12.751564 | -2.683335 | 33.333333 | 3 | -14.804935 | -11.496931 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 5 | 12 | June-August | 14.477615 | 0.415010 | 61.538462 | -36.875847 | 106.015640 | 13 | False | 28.618266 | 15.306495 | 75.000000 | 4 | 44.231841 | 26.492031 | 100.000000 | 3 | -22.303405 | -23.695444 | 0.000000 | 3 | 2.650208 | 0.415010 | 66.7% | 3 |
6-Month Period Performance:
| Â | Rank | Period | Mean Return | Median Return | Success Rate | Min Return | Max Return | Count | Is Current | Year4 Mean | Year4 Median | Year4 Success | Year4 Count | Year1 Mean | Year1 Median | Year1 Success | Year1 Count | Year2 Mean | Year2 Median | Year2 Success | Year2 Count | Year3 Mean | Year3 Median | Year3 Success | Year3 Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1 | September-February | 86.188878 | 66.010952 | 64.285714 | -47.084612 | 330.101642 | 14 | False | 167.120993 | 168.717541 | 100.000000 | 4 | 146.539822 | 117.877768 | 66.666667 | 3 | -25.882291 | -45.959537 | 33.333333 | 3 | 44.046931 | 38.957892 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | October-March | 125.229225 | 53.399416 | 78.571429 | -37.917394 | 687.469287 | 14 | False | 309.754869 | 260.611115 | 100.000000 | 4 | 108.085649 | 60.158943 | 100.000000 | 3 | -9.527043 | -37.303625 | 33.333333 | 3 | 54.628464 | 38.415578 | 75.0% | 4 |
| 11 | 3 | December-May | 111.376185 | 49.421965 | 69.230769 | -44.302516 | 932.364810 | 13 | False | 410.520322 | 209.679810 | 100.000000 | 3 | -37.584453 | -43.922395 | 0.000000 | 3 | 44.897845 | 58.563439 | 66.666667 | 3 | 48.597315 | 45.302966 | 100.0% | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | August-January | 103.324481 | 45.641833 | 61.538462 | -62.830312 | 721.315332 | 13 | False | 106.406105 | 89.488601 | 100.000000 | 4 | 323.157322 | 255.380785 | 66.666667 | 3 | -39.782312 | -55.827925 | 0.000000 | 3 | 22.489603 | 29.435526 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | July-December | 121.971660 | 45.018234 | 69.230769 | -49.843750 | 718.700369 | 13 | False | 102.982519 | 74.798052 | 100.000000 | 4 | 404.496695 | 462.973539 | 100.000000 | 3 | -36.401360 | -42.163411 | 0.000000 | 3 | 23.138499 | 38.691785 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 0 | 6 | January-June | 81.650245 | 44.323144 | 69.230769 | -56.900519 | 576.208459 | 13 | False | 43.800000 | 46.320311 | 100.000000 | 4 | 250.721648 | 155.136908 | 100.000000 | 3 | -41.103543 | -53.993444 | 0.000000 | 3 | 85.799622 | 84.325469 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | November-April | 135.980408 | 43.928610 | 71.428571 | -38.654002 | 1171.636364 | 14 | False | 404.544530 | 206.192305 | 100.000000 | 4 | 41.836064 | 43.640430 | 66.666667 | 3 | -1.294194 | -16.424776 | 33.333333 | 3 | 40.980495 | 47.409600 | 75.0% | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | June-November | 111.694283 | 42.848044 | 69.230769 | -46.997977 | 776.487163 | 13 | False | 82.812047 | 75.717317 | 100.000000 | 4 | 387.399039 | 332.881928 | 100.000000 | 3 | -44.304241 | -45.967311 | 0.000000 | 3 | 30.497699 | 38.570904 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | May-October | 54.157954 | 31.170973 | 76.923077 | -45.540211 | 377.003885 | 13 | True | 63.518998 | 57.766111 | 100.000000 | 4 | 142.900028 | 45.520841 | 100.000000 | 3 | -34.024246 | -31.808696 | 0.000000 | 3 | 41.116688 | 31.170973 | 100.0% | 3 |
| 1 | 10 | February-July | 75.204859 | 30.402678 | 76.923077 | -39.396121 | 384.137931 | 13 | False | 52.641101 | 59.834331 | 100.000000 | 4 | 201.898537 | 196.248924 | 100.000000 | 3 | -30.264249 | -27.516812 | 0.000000 | 3 | 84.065300 | 30.402678 | 100.0% | 3 |
| 2 | 11 | March-August | 62.142971 | 12.036637 | 61.538462 | -53.590453 | 297.449545 | 13 | False | 41.854168 | 33.698355 | 75.000000 | 4 | 194.460990 | 281.747689 | 100.000000 | 3 | -32.915262 | -31.969396 | 0.000000 | 3 | 51.934924 | 12.036637 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 3 | 12 | April-September | 44.755799 | -3.168942 | 46.153846 | -57.328822 | 303.801781 | 13 | False | 63.255941 | 57.169211 | 75.000000 | 4 | 103.520605 | 32.198953 | 66.666667 | 3 | -25.361489 | -14.010246 | 0.000000 | 3 | 31.441426 | -3.168942 | 33.3% | 3 |
Analysis includes data from 14 years: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year): 2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07% 2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13% 2020 (Cycle Year 4): +303.87% 2012 (Cycle Year 4): +164.80% 2023 (Cycle Year 3): +154.34% 2016 (Cycle Year 4): +122.74% 2024 (Cycle Year 4): +111.33% 2019 (Cycle Year 3): +87.48% 2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18% 2015 (Cycle Year 3): +37.31% 2014 (Cycle Year 2): -57.44% 2011 (Cycle Year 3): -57.98% 2022 (Cycle Year 2): -65.41% 2018 (Cycle Year 2): -72.53% Average Year-End Return: +536.71% Median Year-End Return: +111.33% Returns by Cycle Year: Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021): Average: +2261.79% Sample size: 3 years Cycle Year 2 (years: 2014, 2022, 2018): Average: -65.12% Sample size: 3 years Cycle Year 3 (years: 2023, 2019, 2015, 2011): Average: +55.29% Sample size: 4 years Cycle Year 4 (years: 2020, 2012, 2016, 2024): Average: +175.69% Sample size: 4 years
Analysis includes 3 years matching cycle year(s) Year 1: 2013, 2017, 2021 Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year): 2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07% 2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13% 2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18% Average Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +2261.79% Median Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13% Returns by Cycle Year: Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021): Average: +2261.79% Sample size: 3 years
Applying clustering filter with 10-day window... Filtered from 149 to 13 periods Found 5 periods with correlation >= 0.7 Top correlated periods: 1. 2022-09-15 to 2023-02-05 (Year: 2022, Correlation: 0.8411) Extended to: 2023-08-04 (+180 days) 2. 2023-06-18 to 2023-11-08 (Year: 2023, Correlation: 0.8337) Extended to: 2024-05-06 (+180 days) 3. 2013-04-27 to 2013-09-17 (Year: 2013, Correlation: 0.8141) Extended to: 2014-03-16 (+180 days) 4. 2020-01-14 to 2020-06-05 (Year: 2020, Correlation: 0.7860) Extended to: 2020-12-02 (+180 days) 5. 2015-06-22 to 2015-11-12 (Year: 2015, Correlation: 0.7833) Extended to: 2016-05-10 (+180 days)
Detailed correlation results: start_date end_date correlation year period_length extended_length 0 2022-09-15 2023-02-05 0.841071 2022 144 324 1 2023-06-18 2023-11-08 0.833678 2023 144 324 2 2013-04-27 2013-09-17 0.814058 2013 144 324 3 2020-01-14 2020-06-05 0.786026 2020 144 324 4 2015-06-22 2015-11-12 0.783315 2015 144 324 Best match details: Period: 2022-09-15 to 2023-02-05 Correlation: 0.8411
Conversion successful! Created: C:/Users/Chris/Python/format_csv.py ✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!
FORWARD RETURNS ANALYSIS ================================================================================ Current 30-day return: 15.15% Similar periods threshold: ±0.50% Filters applied: Cycle Years: Year1, Quarters: 1, 2, 3 Total similar periods found: 7 ================================================================================ Forward Returns Summary: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Window Count Median Mean Min Max % Positive -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 days 7 5.03% 6.02% -2.26% 13.92% 85.7% 14 days 7 16.71% 13.44% -7.93% 31.58% 71.4% 30 days 7 20.33% 22.59% -15.90% 75.03% 85.7% 90 days 7 63.34% 171.31% 12.22% 665.34% 100.0% 180 days 7 111.66% 232.96% -19.62% 573.72% 57.1% 365 days 7 144.11% 988.65% -58.40% 5368.99% 57.1% Top 5 Similar Periods (with 90-day forward returns): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Start Date End Date Forward Return Cycle Year Quarter 2021-08-29 2021-11-27 12.22% Year1 3 2021-07-26 2021-10-24 63.34% Year1 3 2021-02-08 2021-05-09 25.61% Year1 1 2017-06-29 2017-09-27 65.22% Year1 2 2017-01-17 2017-04-17 29.86% Year1 1 ================================================================================
FORWARD RETURNS ANALYSIS ================================================================================ Current 30-day return: 12.46% Similar periods threshold: ±0.50% Filters applied: Cycle Years: Year1, Quarters: 1, 2, 3 Total similar periods found: 4 ================================================================================ Forward Returns Summary: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Window Count Median Mean Min Max % Positive -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 days 4 6.23% 4.96% 0.39% 7.00% 100.0% 14 days 4 16.31% 16.90% 6.12% 28.87% 100.0% 30 days 4 43.95% 43.15% 19.77% 64.95% 100.0% 90 days 4 568.19% 712.88% 128.82% 1586.30% 100.0% 180 days 4 367.46% 379.10% 277.68% 503.80% 100.0% 365 days 4 3376.42% 3504.97% 496.85% 6770.19% 100.0% Top 5 Similar Periods (with 90-day forward returns): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Start Date End Date Forward Return Cycle Year Quarter 2017-04-05 2017-07-04 128.82% Year1 2 2017-03-23 2017-06-21 158.05% Year1 1 2013-01-09 2013-04-09 1586.30% Year1 1 2013-01-05 2013-04-05 978.33% Year1 1 ================================================================================
===== Bitcoin 50% Recovery Points from 30%+ Drawdowns in 2024-2025 ===== Total recovery points found: 2 ----- Average Statistics ----- Average Drawdown: 32.4% Average Forward Returns: 7 days: -2.9% (Win rate: 50.0%) 14 days: 0.7% (Win rate: 50.0%) 30 days: 3.6% (Win rate: 50.0%) 60 days: 0.8% (Win rate: 100.0%) 90 days: 22.6% (Win rate: 100.0%) 180 days: 58.5% (Win rate: 100.0%)
===== Bitcoin 50% Recovery Points from 30%+ Drawdowns Cycle Year(s): Year1 ===== Total recovery points found: 14 Showing 3 out of 14 recovery points (sorted by drawdown size) Recovery Point #1 (sorted by drawdown size): Date: 2013-10-18 00:00:00 Year: 2013 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 4 | Month: October Price at recovery: $152.89 Previous peak (high): $259.34 Drawdown low: $45.00 Drawdown amount: $214.34 (82.6%) Recovery amount: $107.89 (50.3%) Forward Returns: 7d: 22.0% | 14d: 32.2% | 30d: 212.2% | 60d: 341.5% | 90d: 444.1% | 180d: 660.2% Recovery Point #2 (sorted by drawdown size): Date: 2017-01-01 00:00:00 Year: 2017 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 1 | Month: January Price at recovery: $997.75 Previous peak (high): $1163.00 Drawdown low: $382.21 Drawdown amount: $780.79 (67.1%) Recovery amount: $615.54 (78.8%) Forward Returns: 7d: -8.8% | 14d: -17.6% | 30d: -3.4% | 60d: 26.0% | 90d: 8.6% | 180d: 147.1% Recovery Point #3 (sorted by drawdown size): Date: 2021-08-13 00:00:00 Year: 2021 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 3 | Month: August Price at recovery: $47860.58 Previous peak (high): $64895.22 Drawdown low: $28600.00 Drawdown amount: $36295.22 (55.9%) Recovery amount: $19260.58 (53.1%) Forward Returns: 7d: 3.1% | 14d: 2.6% | 30d: -3.8% | 60d: 17.0% | 90d: 35.4% | 180d: 101.6% ----- Average Statistics ----- Average Drawdown: 43.6% Average Forward Returns: 7 days: 13.0% (Win rate: 64.3%) 14 days: 25.3% (Win rate: 71.4%) 30 days: 57.4% (Win rate: 71.4%) 60 days: 91.7% (Win rate: 92.3%) 90 days: 135.9% (Win rate: 100.0%) 180 days: 364.6% (Win rate: 100.0%)
Bitcoin performance after first all time high in 30 days (Year1)
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Date Bitcoin Close High Price Cycle Year Week Month 3 Month 6 Month Year
01/21/2013 16.52 16.98 Year1 13.01 81.60 619.19 414.77 4893.28
02/20/2013 30.00 30.07 Year1 4.37 133.00 291.67 242.83 1772.87
03/25/2013 75.11 80.00 Year1 39.40 98.38 33.68 64.28 677.22
11/06/2013 263.24 265.00 Year1 49.48 207.71 205.04 64.49 32.95
02/23/2017 1,188.11 1,193.92 Year1 5.80 -19.53 103.71 243.82 755.65
04/30/2017 1,350.21 1,356.00 Year1 15.09 63.20 98.53 327.48 584.50
06/06/2017 2,880.74 2,933.00 Year1 -6.17 -9.73 48.47 290.52 165.85
08/05/2017 3,263.62 3,339.66 Year1 18.12 31.05 118.98 175.74 115.48
10/12/2017 5,445.00 5,445.00 Year1 4.66 16.71 173.46 25.54 13.59
11/16/2017 7,846.96 7,976.79 Year1 1.81 144.53 20.95 8.00 -29.80
12/16/2017 19,187.78 19,377.00 Year1 -23.81 -29.08 -56.96 -65.36 -83.36
01/01/2021 29,402.64 29,700.00 Year1 38.31 12.72 99.74 19.16 62.49
02/08/2021 46,416.45 46,712.12 Year1 3.29 20.33 25.61 -3.89 -5.01
03/13/2021 61,165.19 61,781.83 Year1 -4.95 -2.18 -38.95 -24.15 -38.22
04/13/2021 63,564.48 63,769.00 Year1 -11.11 -21.82 -47.92 -13.92 -35.27
10/20/2021 65,990.31 67,016.50 Year1 -11.40 -11.91 -35.78 -38.15 -71.14
01/20/2025 102,141.00 109,356.00 Year1 -0.05 -5.38 -16.59 5.99 5.99
05/21/2025 109,682.00 110,730.00 Year1 -1.30 -1.30 -1.30 -1.30 -1.30
Average 7.47 39.35 91.20 96.44 489.77
Median 3.83 14.71 41.08 22.35 23.27
% Positive 61.1 55.6 66.7 66.7 61.1
Found 155 total ATHs to analyze
Analyzing 14-day pause ATHs...
Found 14 ATHs with 14-day pause
Bitcoin Forward Returns FROM Pause End - 14 day pauses (Year1)
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ATH Date ATH Days End Date End Price Decline Cycle 1W 1W DD 1W Max 2W 2W DD 2W Max 1M 1M DD 1M Max 2M 2M DD 2M Max 3M 3M DD 3M Max 6M 6M DD 6M Max 1Y 1Y DD 1Y Max
04/10/2013 162.00 14 04/24/2013 149.00 -8.02 Year1 -21.64 -29.60 14.28 -24.05 -45.30 14.28 -13.62 -45.30 14.28 -32.61 -45.30 14.28 -41.62 -57.72 14.28 20.89 -57.72 22.10 237.05 -57.72 680.54
11/30/2013 1,119.80 14 12/14/2013 854.99 -23.65 Year1 -30.18 -55.30 1.75 -16.37 -55.30 1.75 -3.74 -55.30 16.38 -23.66 -55.30 16.38 -26.27 -55.30 16.38 -33.44 -60.26 16.38 -58.30 -67.84 16.38
03/10/2017 1,116.97 14 03/24/2017 929.06 -16.82 Year1 15.20 -4.06 16.35 28.16 -4.06 29.38 33.68 -4.06 34.79 143.71 -4.06 144.87 192.07 -4.06 220.75 317.03 -4.06 436.01 819.96 -4.06 2016.76
06/12/2017 2,667.06 14 06/26/2017 2,421.22 -9.22 Year1 5.34 -5.38 7.18 -4.04 -6.58 9.01 4.29 -24.42 21.34 79.91 -24.42 85.03 51.34 -24.42 105.68 503.79 -24.42 712.24 150.62 -24.42 712.24
09/02/2017 4,599.90 14 09/16/2017 3,678.93 -20.02 Year1 2.72 -5.87 12.06 17.59 -5.87 18.21 56.18 -5.87 58.92 98.26 -5.87 114.41 374.91 -5.87 387.48 124.66 -5.87 434.56 76.68 -5.87 434.56
12/17/2017 18,953.00 14 12/31/2017 13,880.00 -26.77 Year1 16.17 -7.77 24.17 -1.67 -7.78 24.17 -28.16 -33.56 24.17 -21.45 -57.34 24.17 -50.08 -57.34 24.17 -55.30 -58.40 24.17 -73.39 -77.51 24.17
01/08/2021 40,667.07 14 01/22/2021 32,992.06 -18.87 Year1 3.81 -11.64 17.06 16.15 -11.64 17.45 74.26 -11.64 76.87 64.77 -11.64 87.26 56.66 -11.64 96.70 -2.59 -13.31 96.70 6.36 -13.31 109.14
02/21/2021 57,492.91 14 03/07/2021 50,967.30 -11.35 Year1 15.79 -3.24 21.22 12.59 -3.24 21.22 13.83 -3.24 21.22 10.75 -7.78 27.33 -30.28 -41.01 27.33 -1.85 -43.89 27.33 -25.41 -43.89 35.38
03/13/2021 61,165.19 14 03/27/2021 55,839.42 -8.71 Year1 2.19 -2.08 7.64 7.03 -2.08 9.64 -3.16 -15.82 16.22 -29.60 -46.16 16.22 -43.41 -48.78 16.22 -19.58 -48.78 16.22 -16.07 -48.78 23.57
04/14/2021 62,986.09 14 04/28/2021 54,901.97 -12.83 Year1 4.75 -4.59 7.46 -10.05 -11.61 8.56 -34.99 -45.24 8.56 -36.80 -47.91 8.56 -28.10 -47.91 8.56 14.93 -47.91 22.07 -27.59 -47.91 25.68
10/20/2021 65,990.31 14 11/03/2021 62,930.72 -4.64 Year1 3.16 -4.48 9.64 -4.06 -7.20 9.64 -14.60 -18.07 9.64 -24.76 -33.31 9.64 -38.45 -47.64 9.64 -38.79 -47.64 9.64 -67.89 -72.04 9.64
11/10/2021 64,921.43 14 11/24/2021 57,185.06 -11.92 Year1 0.12 -6.78 3.95 -11.61 -26.61 3.95 -11.09 -26.61 3.95 -36.53 -40.54 3.95 -33.08 -42.38 3.95 -49.14 -55.58 3.95 -70.99 -72.93 3.95
01/20/2025 102,141.00 14 02/03/2025 101,457.00 -0.67 Year1 -3.93 -6.63 0.32 -5.60 -7.26 0.32 -10.69 -22.93 0.32 -17.35 -24.50 0.32 -7.04 -26.63 0.32 6.70 -26.63 10.39 6.70 -26.63 10.39
Average -13.35 1.04 -11.34 11.01 0.31 -14.96 12.89 4.78 -24.00 23.59 13.43 -31.09 42.49 28.97 -36.21 71.65 60.56 -38.04 140.90 73.67 -43.30 315.57
Median -11.92 3.16 -5.87 9.64 -4.04 -7.26 9.64 -3.74 -22.93 16.38 -21.45 -33.31 16.38 -28.10 -42.38 16.38 -1.85 -47.64 22.10 -16.07 -47.91 25.68
% Positive 76.9 0.0 100.0 38.5 0.0 100.0 38.5 0.0 100.0 38.5 0.0 100.0 30.8 0.0 100.0 46.2 0.0 100.0 46.2 0.0 100.0
Breakdown by Pause Period:
14-day pause: 13 ATHs